La última chaladura: los niños causan calentamiento global

COPENHAGEN – Across all cultures, raising a child is considered one of the most rewarding things a person can do. Yet a chorus of campaigners, scientists, and journalists suggest that everyone should think twice before procreating.

The United States’ public radio broadcaster NPR asks, “Should We Be Having Kids in the Age of Climate Change?” The Nation magazine wants to know, “How Do You Decide to Have a Baby When Climate Change Is Remaking Life on Earth?” The Guardian counsels readers: “Want to fight climate change? Have fewer children.” And the New York Times warns that having a child is the worst environmental action anyone could take.

By having two children, a hypothetical American woman who switches to a fuel-efficient car, drives less, recycles, installs efficient light bulbs and energy-saving windows, would do as much damage as “nearly 40 times what she had saved by those actions.” Last year, the US fertility rate hit a historic low.

We have been here before. In the 1970s, fear of environmental degradation and societal collapse drove some well-intentioned people to remain childless. The scientists and opinion leaders comprising the Club of Rome famously (and erroneously) predicted humanity’s end, forecasting that the world would run out of aluminium, copper, gold, lead, mercury, molybdenum, natural gas, oil, silver, tin, tungsten, and zinc. They advocated stopping economic growth, cutting consumption, and making sure people had fewer children.

Some people in rich countries followed this advice. In 1972, US activists founded the National Organization for Non-Parents, promoting childlessness as “politically responsible.” A research paper from 1976 noted that fear of overpopulation had become “one of the reasons for remaining child-free.” One wonders whether any of the scientists felt remorse, or how many would-be parents felt regret, when the dire predictions turned out to be fear mongering.

Just like the Club of Rome, today’s climate scientists make the case against having children by pointing to the environmental burden caused by adding to the planet’s population. Most analyses use the approach set out in a 2009 paper by Oregon State University’s Paul A. Murtaugh and Michael G. Schlax, which holds each parent responsible for half of every child’s projected lifetime C2 emissions. But it doesn’t stop there: You are held responsible not just for half of your child’s emissions, but also for a quarter of your grandchildren’s emissions, an eighth of your great-grandchildren’s emissions, and so on. In their central scenario, Murtaugh and Schlax expect that in the US every child will account for more than 20 tons of CO2 every year.

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