'El esfuerzo por combatir el calentamiento global en realidad sólo empeorará las cosas' | Michael Kelly

El esfuerzo para combatir el calentamiento global en los términos de la Cumbre de París es inviable ya que sólo empeorará las cosas, provocando la pobreza, la miseria y el hambre para gran parte de la población, según afirma el físico de la Universidad de Cambridge, Michael Kelly, que sugiere que una opción más viable sería el empleo de una nueva generación de combustibles fósiles mientras no se desarrollan fuentes energéticas limpias y realmente eficientes.

In his peer-reviewed article, Lessons from technology development for energy and sustainability, Michael Kelly considers the lessons from global decarbonization projects, and concludes that all combined actions to reduce carbon emissions so far will not achieve a serious reduction. In some cases, these efforts will actually make matters worse.

Central to his thesis, which is supported by examples, is that rapid decarbonization will simply not be possible without a significant reduction in standards of living. The growing call to decarbonize the global economy by 80% by 2050 could only foreseeably happen alongside large parts of the population plunging into poverty, destitution or starvation, as low-carbon energy sources do not produce enough energy to sustain society. According to Kelly, “It is clear to me that every further step along the current pathway of deploying first-generation renewable energy is locking in immature and uneconomic systems at net loss to the world standard of living.”

As Kelly notes, it has been 40 years since the modern renewable energy developments began, and yet the fraction of world energy supplied by renewables (wind, solar and cultivated biomass sources combined) has hardly increased. The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 reports 3 % for wind, solar and cultivated biomass sources combined, for 2014.

Kelly’s argument is that weaning off fossil fuels will take much longer than postulated by some experts. He suggests that a more viable option is to employ another generation of fossil fuels—during which economic conditions of humankind can be improved and alternate solutions can be explored and developed. As the global population is set to rise from 7 billion to 9 billion in 2050, an altogether more sophisticated debate is needed on appropriate actions that considers the full range of threats to humanity, and carefully weighs the upsides and downsides both of taking action—and refraining from it.

Seguir leyendo...



'Con muchos días de retraso AEMET pública el resumen climatológico del pasado mes de Abril. El mapa de temperaturas indica que la parte de España con temperaturas inferiores a la normal ha sido bastante más extensa que la parte con temperaturas más cálidas. En el texto, sin embargo, se dice que la media ha sido la normal, 13 grados centígrados'. | ANTÓN URIARTE