dilluns, 8 d’octubre del 2018

Otra vez el fin del mundo


El catastrofismo climático todavía vende. Cada vez menos, pero lo suficiente para que una prensa más papista que el Papa siga tocando a rebato. Una prensa que nos fustiga, como brazo secular de la Inquisición climática, por nuestros pecados, únicos responsables del enésimo fin del mundo. En ese púlpito mediático destaca la BBC, con sus titulares apocalípticos e insultantes. Exagerando incluso lo que dice el propio IPCC en su último informe, del que solo parecen haber leído el resumen de prensa.




El científico Roger Pielke Jr. resume lo que dice el nuevo informe del IPCC y que la prensa socialdemócrata ha omitido:

1/ A short thread on what the new @IPCC_CH report says about trends in extreme events, specifically: heat waves, drought, floods, tropical cyclones, tornadoes. Let's go . . .

2/ Temperature extremes: Nor change from AR5 or SREX

Very likely= ⬇️cold days and nights

Very likely= ⬆️warm days and nights

Likely= "consistent changes are detectable on continental scale in North America, Europe and Australia"

3/ Drought. No change vs AR5

"low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale... likely to be trends in some regions of the world, including increases in drought in the Mediterranean and W Africa & decreases in droughts in central N America & NW Australia"

4/ Floods:

"There is low confidence due to limited evidence, however, that anthropogenic climate change has affected the frequency and the magnitude of floods. "

5/ Floods:

"In summary, streamflow trends since 1950 are non-statistically significant in most of the world’s largest rivers (high confidence)". Though some basins see up trends, some down.

6/ Tropical cyclones:

"Numerous studies towards and beyond AR5 have reported a decreasing trend in the global number of tropical cyclones and/or the globally accumulated cyclonic energy"

7/ Tropical cyclones:

"there is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades."

8/ Tropical cyclones:

" There is consequently low confidence in the larger number of studies reporting increasing trends in the global number of very intense cyclones."

9/ Tornadoes. Not mentioned.

10/ Bottom line.

The IPCC once again reports that there is little basis for claiming that drought, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes have increased, much less increased due to GHGs. In short, this is still right:












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