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dimecres, 20 de juliol de 2016

Francia tendrá más poder en la UE tras el Brexit

Con el Reino Unido fuera del Consejo, y un aumento en la proporción de votos ponderados de los países restantes, formar una minoría de bloqueo será más fácil que ahora

Alemania tiene una tasa relativamente baja de coincidencia con los otros grandes Estados miembros, lo que significa que, en el plano de las políticas comunitarias, Berlín lo tiene más difícil para establecer una minoría de bloqueo. En cambio, Francia, Italia y Rumania tienen altas tasas de concordancia entre sí. Por lo tanto, sin el Reino Unido, será más fácil que una coalición liderada por Italia y Francia pueda bloquear cualquier legislación que no sea de su agrado.

VOTE WATCH EUROPE.- When Member States are in the minority, or want to push harder for their voice to be heard, they try to assemble a blocking minority, which has to be made up of at least 4 Member States representing 35% of EU’s population. This means that, usually, at least one of the largest Member States should be taken aboard in order to block a proposal.

With the UK out of the Council, and an increase in the share of weighted votes for the remaining countries, forming a blocking minority will be easier than now. However, the countries with more allies in the Council will benefit the most from it.

On the contrary, Germany has a relatively low matching rate with the other large Member States, which means that, at the EU policy-making level, Berlin finds more difficult to establish a blocking minority. Instead, France, Italy and Romania have high matching rates with each other. Therefore, without the United Kingdom, it might be easier for a coalition led by Italy and France to block whichever piece of legislation they do not like.

The infograph below illustrates how France and Italy will find it easier to build a blocking minority with just 3 other average and small countries after Brexit:

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