Los rendimientos del capital y de los bonos seran menores en los próximos 20 años, incluso si hay un mayor crecimiento del PIB
BUSINESS INSIDER.- The "golden age" of stock market returns is over.Seguir leyendo...
That's the summary of a big piece of research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), which estimated returns over the next 20 years in US and Western European markets under two scenarios. The first assumes that today's slow-growth environment remains, while the second models faster growth as technology improves.
It concluded that in neither case would returns match those of the past 30 years. For US and European stocks, the difference between past and future annual returns could range from 1.5 percentage points to 4 percentage points. The gap for fixed-income could be even wider, between 3 and 5 percentage points for most countries, the report notes.
"What's surprising is that even if there's higher GDP growth, we find that returns in equity and bonds over the next 20 years would still be lower," Susan Lund, a partner at the institute and one of the coauthors of the report, told Business Insider.