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dijous, 22 de setembre de 2016

Merkel va a ganar en 2017

THE ECONOMIST.- Regional setbacks should not cloud analysis of how Ms Merkel and the CDU will fare in next year's federal election. Voters will be looking for a leader capable of taking control on the national and global stages; currently Ms Merkel is unmatched in that regard. Moreover, she has already taken steps to mitigate the risks associated with her migrant stance. Policy has been tightened, inflows have fallen sharply and on September 19th Ms Merkel subtly shifted her tone on the issue by acknowledging that she wished that the country had been better prepared for the crisis. (She did not, as has been widely reported, express regret for her policy stance.)

In our view Ms Merkel is still well placed to continue as chancellor for another term following the 2017 election. Even when taking into account public wariness about her migration policy, some internal CDU discontent regarding strategy and the recent succession of regional election defeats, the CDU remains 8-10 percentage points ahead of the SPD in national opinion polls. The smaller parties are likely to continue to chip away at the electoral bases of the two largest parties; however, this will be as much of a problem for the SPD as it will for the CDU, and it will not alter the fact that those two parties will be in the driving seat when it comes to forming the next government.

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