El 28% de las playas del mundo crecen, el 24% se erosionan y el 48% permanecen estables

Primera evaluación global de los cambios históricos en las playas de todo el mundo

Coastal zones constitute one of the most heavily populated and developed land zones in the world. Despite the utility and economic benefits that coasts provide, there is no reliable global-scale assessment of historical shoreline change trends. Here, via the use of freely available optical satellite images captured since 1984, in conjunction with sophisticated image interrogation and analysis methods, we present a global-scale assessment of the occurrence of sandy beaches and rates of shoreline change therein. Applying pixel-based supervised classification, we found that 31% of the world’s ice-free shoreline are sandy. The application of an automated shoreline detection method to the sandy shorelines thus identified resulted in a global dataset of shoreline change rates for the 33 year period 1984–2016. Analysis of the satellite derived shoreline data indicates that 24% of the world’s sandy beaches are eroding at rates exceeding 0.5 m/yr, while 28% are accreting and 48% are stable. The majority of the sandy shorelines in marine protected areas are eroding, raising cause for serious concern.

Leer el estudio completo en Nature

Jueces y fiscales piden en bloque la dimisión del ministro Catalá

Asociaciones de jueces y fiscales han reaccionado a las declaraciones del ministro de Justicia Rafael Catalá y han pedido su dimisión. Alegan que entre las críticas hacia el tribunal que ha juzgado a La Manada, “hay descalificaciones insultantes”, y que la sentencia ha sido “objeto de furibunda y exacerbada crítica”.

En el comunicado, firmado por las siete asociaciones españolas de jueces, juezas y fiscales, se exige “una vez más” la dimisión de Catalá. Como argumentos, señalan que “la intromisión del Ejecutivo en las labores que le corresponden exclusivamente al Consejo General del Poder Judicial y los comentarios acerca de la capacitación o no de un magistrado son una temeridad por quien ejerce como ministro de Justicia”.

Más...

Catalá: "Todos saben que el juez que emitió el voto particular en la sentencia de La Manada tiene un problema; el CGPJ debería haber actuado"

El CGPJ responde a Catalá: “No había ningún motivo” para actuar contra el juez de La Manada

Cs acusa a Catalá de "no respetar" a los jueces y de querer "interferir" en el CGPJ

Helena Cronin: La formulación de políticas públicas está determinada por teorías pseudocientíficas

La Justicia sueca absolvió la 'Manada'

Tribunal sueco absuelve a cinco hombres acusados de violación en grupo

EFE.- Un tribunal de Södertörn (Suecia) absolvió hoy a cinco hombres acusados de una violación en grupo en el rellano de una escalera al considerar que las pruebas presentadas eran insuficientes para confirmar que la mujer fue forzada a realizar actos sexuales, informó la emisora pública Radio de Suecia.

Los hombres admitieron durante el juicio haber tenido sexo con la mujer en un edifico de un suburbio de Estocolmo, pero alegaron que fue consentido.

En la ropa de la mujer se encontraron restos de esperma de tres de los acusados y de otros hombres no identificados, pero, según el tribunal, no se pudo determinar "cuándo o dónde tuvieron lugar los actos sexuales y si hubo coacción".

La sentencia se produce mientras el país mantiene un encendido debate sobre la necesidad de frenar los abusos sexuales y después de que el gobierno anunciara una ley para endurecer las penas por violación, en la que se definirá la violación como "sexo sin consentimiento activo".

La ley actual sueca define la violación como el sexo forzado a través de violencia o amenazas o aprovechando la situación de vulnerabilidad de la víctima, y la reforma, que podría estar aprobada para el verano, hará ilegal el sexo que no cuente con consentimiento activo.

El sexo debe ser voluntario. Si no es voluntario, es ilegal", manifestó en domingo al presentar el proyecto el primer ministro sueco, Stefan Löfven, quien consideró que, además de facilitar los procesos, es una herramienta para cambiar actitudes y valores.

En el caso juzgado por el tribunal de Södertörn, la mujer, con problemas de drogadicción, explicó a la policía que había acudido a Fittja, en el sur de Estocolmo, a comprar drogas para un amigo.

Según Radio de Suecia, describió con detalle cómo fue violada por hasta diez personas durante cuatro horas y denunció que fue pateada y amenazada con un cuchillo y que golpearon su cabeza contra las escaleras, por lo que perdió la conciencia.

El examen médico tras el ataque reveló múltiples heridas, según los facultativos compatibles con la versión de la víctima.

La Fiscalía había solicitado seis años de prisión para dos acusados por violación grave y cuatro años para otro por el mismo delito; mientras que para los otros dos detenidos había pedido dos años por colaboración.

En declaraciones a la agencia sueca TT, la presidenta del tribunal, Erica Hemtke, reconoció que el problema fue determinar qué ocurrió a partir de la investigación policial.

Quedaron demostradas las lesiones que sufrió la mujer y la presencia de esperma, pero no que fuera objeto de abusos, añadió.

Hemtke criticó el trabajo de la policía, que hizo que el juicio se basara prácticamente solo en el testimonio de la víctima.

El fiscal del caso, Markus Hankkio, coincidió en denunciar las deficiencias de la investigación por la falta de recursos de la policía, lo que motivó retrasos y que se malograra la toma de pruebas en el lugar de los hechos.

Robin Grönvall, abogado de uno de los sospechosos, consideró que la absolución era "el único fin razonable" para un juicio en el que se demostró que la versión de la mujer no coincidía con las pruebas presentadas y con el testimonio de su defendido, que aseguro que ella ofreció sexo a cambio de drogas.

Publicada en Excelsior

Lea también la noticia publicada por un medio sueco en inglés:

Five men acquitted in Fittja rape case

Avance de resultados del estudio Postelectoral de Cataluña (CIS)

La cara sucia de la energía limpia

Más de 1,000 de toneladas de desechos radiactivos se producen en la producción de una sola turbina eólica de 3 MW. Las turbinas eólicas necesitan una gran cantidad de tierras raras de neodimio. El remedio es peor que la supuesta enfermedad.

La sentencia de la manada y la manada que sentencia

By Otracaradelaverdad

Que el pueblo quería sangre estaba cantado. Prueba de ellos es que sin haber conocido ningún dato de lo argumentado en la sentencia, solo con la pena impuesta, ya estaba la masa aclamando su concepto de justicia en las redes sociales. Deba igual 9 años que 29 años. Siempre habría habido sectores disconformes porque el pueblo quería sangre.

Lo cierto es que a mi me duele y me entristece ver como en otros casos en los que las víctimas además de haber sido violadas no por cinco sino por diez han sufrido también secuestro además de agresión, la masa mira para otro lado. Y me indigna ver pancartas con mensajes ignorantes como el "No es abuso es violación" cuando el abuso está recogido jurídicamente como una forma de violación.

Copio a continuación una explicación que nos deja en twitter JOAQUIM BOSCH GRAU (Magistrado y portavoz territorial de Juezas y Jueces para la Democracia)

1. La sentencia del caso La Manada condena a los acusados a 9 años de prisión por abusos sexuales y descarta la condena de 18 años de cárcel por agresión sexual. Y ha provocado el rechazo de amplios sectores sociales.

2. La agresión sexual exige penetración no consentida y que haya violencia o intimidación. La violencia supone el uso de fuerza para doblegar la voluntad de la víctima, como por ejemplo golpearla. La intimidación requiere el anuncio de un mal, como amenazarla con una navaja.

3. En cambio, el abuso sexual solo implica un acceso carnal sin consentimiento libre y sin violencia o intimidación. Por ejemplo, penetrar sexualmente a una persona privada de sentido o en un estado de embriaguez que le haga perder transitoriamente sus capacidades intelectivas.

4. La sentencia no niega una violación. Según la RAE, violar es “tener acceso carnal con alguien en contra de su voluntad o cuando se halla privado de sentido o discernimiento”. Suponen violación tanto la agresión como el abuso sexual con penetración.

5. El tribunal basa los hechos probados en la versión de la denunciante, confirmada por otros medios de prueba. Se indica que los 5 acusados la llevaron al habitáculo en el que se produjeron los hechos y que la penetraron vaginal, anal y bucalmente sin su consentimiento libre.

6. ¿Por qué la sentencia dice que no hubo agresión sexual? Se indica que no hubo violencia por no concurrir golpes u otros actos de fuerza física.Obviamente, todo acceso carnal no consentido es violencia en sentido general. Pero la agresión sexual exige otra violencia específica.

7. El tribunal también valora que no concurre intimidación, porque no hubo amenazas expresas de causar daño a la denunciante. Y explica que existió un prevalimiento de superioridad, que agrava la pena de los abusos, pero no supone agresión sexual, ante la falta de intimidación.

8.¿Esa superioridad tan manifiesta solo implica un prevalimiento? ¿O supone una intimidación real, que implicaría agresión sexual? Creo que el contexto y las circunstancias del caso parecen reflejar una intimidación que anula cualquier resistencia y que supondría agresión sexual.

9. Las circunstancias:aplastante superioridad numérica y física de los acusados. El contexto:ella es llevada con engaño a un “escenario de opresión”,según la sentencia. Así cualquier posibilidad de resistencia es nula e incluso peligrosa. La víctima solo pudo quedar paralizada.

10. Esa situación debería implicar la concurrencia de intimidación, aunque no se haya expresado con amenazas: tácitamente la víctima sabe que es muy probable que pueda sufrir daños de entidad si se resiste. Creo que el prevalimiento debe quedar para otros supuestos menos graves.

11. No comparto las descalificaciones al tribunal. Ha creído la versión de la víctima. Y ha detallado con empatía las humillaciones sufridas por esta y las razones por las que no hubo sexo consentido. Su interpretación sobre la falta de intimidación se basa en la jurisprudencia

12. Históricamente esa jurisprudencia no se ha puesto en el lugar de las víctimas para entender las particularidades de estos casos. Bastantes juristas pedimos más formación desde la perspectiva de género para captar esta complejidad. Y reformas legales que la contemplen mejor.

13. Mi interpretación no tiene por qué ser la correcta. Solo es una opinión. La única visión válida competencialmente es la del tribunal del caso, que ha actuado con imparcialidad. Me parecería positivo que los recursos llevaran a una nueva orientación de la jurisprudencia.

14. Los hechos muestran en los acusados un desprecio hacia la dignidad de las mujeres incompatible con principios básicos de igualdad. Eso está instalado en parte de la sociedad. Ojalá todo esto nos sirva como reflexión para ir hacia una sociedad más justa e igualitaria.

OTRA CARA DE LA VERDAD

España baja hasta el lugar 31 en libertad de prensa por el hostigamiento a los periodistas que no apoyan la independencia

REPORTEROS SIN FRONTERAS.- En España, en particular en la región de Cataluña, los últimos meses de 2017 fueron sombríos en materia de libertad de prensa. Los periodistas fueron víctimas colaterales del conflicto entre el gobierno central y el gobierno de Cataluña, que convocó al referéndum ilegal de independencia del 1 de octubre y proclamó la Declaración Unilateral de Independencia. En medio de un clima pleno de tensiones, un gran número de periodistas de medios de comunicación no independentistas padeció violentas agresiones en las redes sociales, en ocasiones incitadas por las palabras de los responsables de prensa del gobierno catalán. Algunos reporteros fueron atacados físicamente cuando cubrían los acontecimientos relacionados con el referéndum; otros fueron intimidados por las fuerzas del orden. En ocasiones los manifestantes impidieron a reporteros de diversos medios de comunicación cubrir las protestas proindependentistas y antiindependentistas. Otra causa de preocupación es la detención en España, por orden de la Interpol, de Hamza Yalçin y de Dogan Akhanli, dos periodistas de origen turco, ciudadanos de la Unión Europea, perseguidos por razones políticas por el régimen de Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Una buena noticia: el Tribunal Constitucional declaró nulos algunos aspectos de la reforma de la ley de Radio y Televisión Española que el gobierno había realizado en 2012. Estos cambios deberían poner freno a la manipulación de la información difundida por la televisión pública y favorecer su pluralidad e independencia. Por desgracia, la Ley de Seguridad Ciudadana, conocida en España como la “ley mordaza”, sigue sin ser abrogada y continúa representando una fuerte amenaza para la libertad de prensa.

Texto íntegro de la sentencia del caso 'La Manada' (incluye el voto particular)

LIBERTAD DIGITAL.- El magistrado Ricardo González ha emitido este jueves un voto discrepante de la sentencia condenatoria contra los miembros de la Manada que cuestiona el testimonio de la víctima, denuncia el juicio paralelo en torno a los hechos y pide que se defienda la presunción de inocencia. El voto particular ocupa más páginas que la sentencia en sí.

Tras denunciar el "innegable, por notorio y evidente, juicio paralelo que desde el primer día ha tenido este proceso", el juez sostiene que la víctima "ha incurrido en tan abundantes, graves y llamativas contradicciones que las modificaciones introducidas en su relato durante el acto del juicio oral constituyen auténticas retractaciones".

Auto del TC sobre la investidura de Puigdemont

Freixes: “Puigdemont dio un golpe de Estado en toda regla"

'La Biblia', 'El Señor de los Anillos', 'El viejo y el mar', 'Drácula', 'El guardián en el centeno' o 'Las aventuras de Huckleberry Finn' entre los 20 libros que dicen que no hay que leer

RT.- La revista estadounidense Gentlemen's Quarterly (GQ) publicó la semana pasada una lista de los 20 libros que considera que no hay que leer. Con la colaboración de varios novelistas y basándose en la premisa de que no todas las obras de la literatura universal son tan magníficas como deberían, la publicación incluyó, entre otros libros, a la Biblia.

"Nos dimos cuenta de que no todos los grandes libros han envejecido bien. Algunos son racistas y otros son sexistas, pero la mayoría son realmente aburridos", destaca el artículo.

De acuerdo con el escritor y poeta norteamericano Jesse Ball, la Biblia es "muy valorada" por las personas que supuestamente viven de acuerdo con sus principios, pero muchos de ellos en realidad nunca la han leído. Quienes lo han hecho, saben que es "repetitiva, se contradice, es sentenciosa, tonta, e incluso a veces malintencionada", subraya.

Imagen ilustrativaLa fruta prohibida del Edén no era la manzana: lo tradujeron mal Al mismo tiempo, el novelista propone leer en su lugar 'El Gran Cuaderno', de la húngara Agota Kristof, una historia de dos hermanos durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

Además de la Biblia, el listado incluye libros como 'El Señor de los Anillos', de JRR Tolkien, 'El viejo y el mar', de Ernest Hemingway, 'Drácula', de Bram Stoker, 'Las aventuras de Huckleberry Finn', de Mark Twain, y otros más.

'El novio de la muerte', el cuplé del legionario 'socialista' al que le puso música un catalán

"Dicen que en la Guerra del Rif encontraron en el pecho de un legionario, muerto en batalla, unos versos de amor. Estaban dedicados a su novia, de cuya muerte acababa de tener noticia. También corría el rumor de que sus compañeros habían notado su deseo de morir, aunque no la causa. Baltasar Queija de la Vega se llamaba, que ya suena bien triste.

Era 1921, y la historia llegó a un compositor catalán que la convirtió en cuplé. Juan Costa Casals. Y lo estrenó el mismo año Lola Montes, en el Teatro Vital de Málaga. Tuvo un éxito inmediato". | Plaza Moyua

Aquí tienen la letra de Fidel Prado Duque que la música de Joan Costa Casals convirtió en un cuplé

Nadie en el Tercio sabía
quién era aquel legionario
tan audaz y temerario
que en la Legión se alistó.

Nadie sabía su historia,
mas la Legión suponía
que un gran dolor le mordía
como un lobo el corazón.

Más si alguno quién era le preguntaba,
con dolor y rudeza le contestaba:
Soy un hombre a quien la suerte
hirió con zarpa de fiera,
soy un novio de la muerte
que va a unirse en lazo fuerte
con tan leal compañera.

Cuando más rudo era el fuego
y la pelea más fiera,
defendiendo su Bandera,
el legionario avanzó.

Y sin temer al empuje
del enemigo exaltado,
supo morir como un bravo
y la enseña rescató.

Y al regar con su sangre la tierra ardiente,
murmuró el legionario con voz doliente:
Soy un hombre a quien la suerte
hirió con zarpa de fiera,
soy un novio de la muerte
que va a unirse en lazo fuerte
con tal leal compañera.

Cuando al fin le recogieron,
entre su pecho encontraron
una carta y un retrato
de una divina mujer.

Y aquella carta decía:
"...si algún día Dios te llama,
para mí un puesto reclama
que a buscarte pronto iré".

Y en el último beso que le enviaba,
su postrer despedida le consagraba:
Por ir a tu lado a verte,
mi más leal compañera,
me hice novio de la muerte,
la estreché con lazo fuerte
y su amor fue mi Bandera.

Al adoptarla como música legionaria se le cambió el ritmo, para que fuera una marcha y posteriormente, en 1952, Emilio Ángel García Ruiz, director de la banda de música del Tercio, adaptó el ritmo para tocarla como marcha de procesión.

¿Inmundicia? Tal vez; es una historia con valores bastante universales. La podría entender desde un trovador medieval hasta un navegante maorí. Y definitivamente no es nada fascista. No exalta la patria, ni al pueblo, ni a Dios, ni a ningún otro de los prodigios superiores al uso. Ni siquiera desprecia ni odia al enemigo, del que todo lo que nos dice es que tenía empuje y estaba exaltado. Y para colmo, sigue al pié de la letra la consigna de aquel ministro socialista de Defensa que prefería morir que matar. Porque el novio de la muerte es el deseo dramático de la muerte propia, no la ajena. Y la entrega, ya que estamos en ello, a los compañeros.

¡Ah, pero es que la canción la adoptó la legión!

¿En serio? ¿Quieres decir ese cuerpo militar copiado a Francia? ¿Y por qué no pides que eliminen la legión, por el estrafalario motivo que sea? Digo, en vez de llamarles inmundicia a sus miembros o a sus canciones. Si la letra del himno no tiene nada reprochable, pero es “inmundo” que unos ministros del PP lo entonasen al paso de la legión en el tradicional traslado del Cristo de la Buena Muerte, en Málaga, donde está la inmundicia? ¿En los soldados; en la Semana Santa; en la tradición? ¿Nos hemos vuelto todos locos? ¡Por favor! Si lo que resulta imposible es no acompañar esa música, a poco que uno tenga oído y conozca su hermosa letra. Que en Málaga será aproximadamente casi todo el mundo. | Plaza Moyua

¿Es la violencia feminista violencia de género?

Feministas pegan y tiran aerosol en la cara y los genitales de religiosos en Argentina, diciéndoles que son "la dictadura" (2013)

Vía @feminisciencia

La exposición a microplásticos en peces e invertebrados acuáticos tiene pocos impactos negativos

Una síntesis de los efectos ecológicos de los microplásticos revela que: 1. La mayoría de los efectos son neutrales. 2. Los grandes efectos negativos se informan en estudios con tamaños de muestra pequeños. 3. Que tenemos un problema de sesgo de publicación @DBarriosONeill

Microplastics are present in aquatic ecosystems the world over and may influence the feeding, growth, reproduction, and survival of freshwater and marine biota; however, the extent and magnitude of potential effects of microplastics on aquatic organisms is poorly understood. In the current study, we conducted a meta-analysis of published literature to examine impacts of exposure to microplastics on consumption (and feeding), growth, reproduction, and survival of fish and aquatic invertebrates. While we did observe within-taxa negative effects for all four categories of responses, many of the effects summarized in our study were neutral, indicating that the effects of exposure to microplastics are highly variable across taxa. The most consistent effect was a reduction in consumption of natural prey when microplastics were present. For some taxa, negative effects on growth, reproduction and even survival were also evident. Organisms that serve as prey to larger predators, e.g., zooplankton, may be particularly susceptible to negative impacts of exposure to microplastic pollution, with potential for ramifications throughout the food web. Future work should focus on whether microplastics may be affecting aquatic organisms more subtly, e.g., by influencing exposure to contaminants and pathogens, or by acting at a molecular level. | SCIENCEDIRECT

Acosan a un chico por quitar lazos amarillos en el día de Sant Jordi

Denuncia de la fiscalía a nueve profesores por humillar a hijos de guardias civiles

El ISIS declara la guerra a las elecciones iraquíes: 'Los colegios electorales y quienquiera que esté en ellos son objetivo'

El califa Abubaker al Bagdadi ha declarado la guerra a las elecciones parlamentarias en Iraq, previstas para el próximo 12 de mayo. “Los colegios electorales y quienquiera que esté en ellos son un objetivo para nosotros, así que manteneos apartados de los mismos”.

MIDDLE EAST EYE.- Islamic State said it would attack polling stations in Iraq during parliamentary election next month and that anyone who participated in the vote would be considered an infidel.

In an audio message released late on Sunday, the militant group's spokesman accused Iraq's government of being a proxy of Iran and warned that anyone who runs or votes in the 12 May election would be targeted.

"We warn you Sunnis of Iraq of these people [Shia] taking power. Polling stations, and whomever is inside them, are a target for us, so stay away from them," said Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajer.

Muhajer calls on IS members to target "every pillar of security, military, economy, media" for the Iraqi government, "every rotten and apostate tribal chief", "every fighting village", plus Sunni clerics who oppose the group, and teachers

The statement comes weeks after IS affirmed loyalty to their leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who is believed to have survived defeats in Syria and Iraq and the loss of his self-declared "caliphate".

Muhajer called for the United States to retreat "beyond the seas", and refused to concede his group had been defeated in war.

"What victory are you claiming, America? The mujahideen are still in a position of power, glory, strength, resolve, foresight, unity - a better position than when you had left Iraq defeated years ago."

Haider al-Abadi, the Iraqi prime minister, declared victory in December over IS, which seized a third of Iraq in 2014, but IS has reverted to insurgency tactics.

Iraqi officials have said polling stations will be well protected.

C's alcanza el 30% de la estimación de voto mientras el PP se hunde (19%) a tercera posición por detrás del PSOE (20,22%)

Última encuesta electoral de Simple Lógica
Toda la información, aquí

Ciudadanos se mantiene como la formación con mayor respaldo electoral con un porcentaje de voto estimado del 29,9%, lo que supone un incremento de unas décimas con respecto al mes de marzo, manteniendo la trayectoria ascendente que ya se observa desde los últimos meses del pasado año.

En el caso del PSOE se aprecia que el porcentaje de voto estimado (20,2%) se inscribe en la trayectoria descendente de sus expectativas en los últimos meses, siendo el descenso registrado con respecto al mes de marzo de algo menos de un punto.

Para el Partido Popular, en la tercera posición de los principales partidos de ámbito estatal, se registra la pérdida de un punto con respecto al mes de marzo, situándose el porcentaje de voto estimado para este partido en el 19,0%. Este dato, por otra parte, consolida también la tendencia descendente en la estimación de intención de voto que ya se observaba en los últimos meses del año pasado.

A propósito de Unidos Podemos, el porcentaje de voto estimado experimenta un leve incremento de sólo tres décimas con respecto al mes de febrero (17,6%), lo que puede suponer un indicio de que la tendencia descendente de meses anteriores se haya podido detener.

Aprobación de los líderes políticos

D. Albert Rivera sigue siendo el político para el que se registra un más alto porcentaje de aprobación al valorar su actuación política (39,1%), pero con respecto al mes de marzo ese porcentaje es ahora más de tres puntos inferior al que se registraba entonces.

A considerable distancia en la valoración se sitúa D. Alberto Garzón con una aprobación del 23,7%, pero también con un descenso de más de dos puntos con respecto a hace un mes.

En tercera posición y con porcentajes de aprobación muy similares se sitúan D. Mariano Rajoy (21,3%) y D. Pedro Sánchez (21,2%). En ambos casos el descenso de sus respectivos porcentajes con respecto al mes de marzo es superior a los tres puntos.

D. Pablo Iglesias con un porcentaje de aprobación del 16,4% sigue ocupando la última posición, aunque el descenso casi irrelevante con respecto al mes anterior haya sido de sólo medio punto.

La crisis de irreproducibilidad de la ciencia moderna

The battle against the present scourge of irreproducibility in science is not entirely new. Science has always imposed constraints on human nature in the service of truth. Empiricism, the obligation to gather data, forces scientists to submit their preconceptions to experimental proof. Rigorous precision, including the use of statistical methods, serves to check laziness and carelessness. Science’s struggle for empiricisim and precision has always been fought against the all-toohuman incentives to pursue predetermined conclusions, professional advancement—or both at once.

So the shortcomings of modern statistics-based research should not surprise us too much. Yet they have done great harm, and they undermine faith in the power and promise of science itself. We need new incentives, new institutional mechanisms, and a new awareness of all the ways in which science can go wrong.

The challenges daunt, but they should also exhilarate. We sometimes hear that professionals have thoroughly institutionalized science, and that its increasing sophistication means that it has become the province of credentialed technicians. The crisis of reproducibility shows that this is not so. The pursuit of scientific truth requires the public to scrutinize and critique the activity of scientific professionals, and to join with them to reform the practice of modern science.

Vía NAS

Lo que hace ETA en su comunicado es perdonarse a sí misma

De las dos cosas que ETA podía decir en su comunicado -que nunca debieron asesinar a inocentes o que la muerte de los mismos era inevitable- han optado por la segunda. Por la equivocada. La que no sirve. Porque ¿de qué va a servir que pidan perdón y digan que lo 'sienten de veras' si se consideran a sí mismos irresponsables de sus crímenes? ¿De que sirven sus excusas si a renglón seguido los justifican afirmando que los cometieron "obligados por las necesidades de todo tipo de la lucha armada"? Atención al participio. Obligados. No podían hacer otra cosa. Los pobrecillos estaban determinados por la historia. Por el bombardeo de Guernika.

Vergonzoso y humillante.

La oposición democrática a la dictadura franquista también vivió los horrores de la guerra civil, de la represión, de la tortura y de las condenas injustas. Pero no por ello decidió enfrentarse a la dictadura con las armas, los atentados o el tiro en la nuca. No existe el determinismo histórico, aunque a veces la historia pese como una losa de plomo. Nada nos obliga a elegir el camino equivocado, aunque a veces sea difícil distinguirlo. La oposición democrática renunció a usar las armas para luchar contra la dictadura porque de haberlo hecho se habría descalificado a sí misma y a sus valores. El primero de los cuales que el fin nunca justifica los medios.

Al pedir perdón, ETA lo que pretende es exhibir una supuesta superioridad moral desde la que exigir a sus víctimas que se equiparen a sus verdugos. No se engañen. Lo que hace ETA en su comunicado es solo perdonarse a sí misma.

Texto íntegro del comunicado de ETA pidiendo perdón

"ETA, organización socialista revolucionaria vasca de liberación nacional, quiere reconocer mediante esta declaración el daño que ha causado en el transcurso de su trayectoria armada, así como mostrar su compromiso con la superación definitiva de las consecuencias del conflicto y con la no repetición.

En estas décadas se ha padecido mucho en nuestro pueblo: muertos, heridos, torturados, secuestrados o personas que se han visto obligadas a huir al extranjero. Un sufrimiento desmedido. ETA reconoce la responsabilidad directa que ha adquirido en ese dolor, y desea manifestar que nada de todo ello debió producirse jamás o que no debió prolongarse tanto en el tiempo, pues hace ya mucho que este conflicto político e histórico debía contar con una solución democrática justa. De hecho, el sufrimiento imperaba antes de que naciera ETA, y ha continuado después de que ETA haya abandonado la lucha armada. Las generaciones posteriores al bombardeo de Gernika heredamos aquella violencia y aquel lamento, y nos corresponde a nosotros y nosotras que las generaciones venideras recojan otro futuro.

Somos conscientes de que en este largo periodo de lucha armada hemos provocado mucho dolor, incluidos muchos daños que no tienen solución. Queremos mostrar respeto a los muertos, los heridos y las víctimas que han causado las acciones de ETA, en la medida que han resultado damnificados por el conflicto. Lo sentimos de veras.

A consecuencia de errores o de decisiones erróneas, ETA ha provocado también víctimas que no tenían una participación directa en el conflicto, tanto en Euskal Herria como fuera de ella. Sabemos que, obligados por las necesidades de todo tipo de la lucha armada, nuestra actuación ha perjudicado a ciudadanos y ciudadanas sin responsabilidad alguna. También hemos provocado graves daños que no tienen vuelta atrás. A estas personas y a sus familiares les pedimos perdón. Estas palabras no solucionarán lo sucedido, ni mitigarán tanto dolor. Lo decimos con respeto, sin querer provocar de nuevo aflicción alguna.

Entendemos que muchos consideren y expresen que nuestra actuación ha sido inaceptable e injusta, y lo respetamos, pues a nadie se le puede forzar a decir lo que no piensa o siente. Para otros muchos también han sido totalmente injustas, pese a utilizar el disfraz de la ley, las acciones de las fuerzas del Estado y de las fuerzas autonomistas que han actuado conjuntamente, y tampoco esos ciudadanos y ciudadanas merecen ser humillados. De lo contrario, deberíamos interpretar que ha existido un daño justo que merece aplauso. ETA, en cambio, tiene otra posición: ojalá nada de eso hubiese ocurrido, ojalá la libertad y la paz hubiesen echado raíces en Euskal Herria hace mucho tiempo.

Nadie puede cambiar el pasado, pero una de las cosas más perjudiciales que se podría hacer ahora sería intentar desfigurarlo o ocultar determinados episodios. Reconozcamos todos la responsabilidad contraída y el daño causado. Pese a no tener ni el mismo punto de vista ni los mismos sentimientos, todos deberíamos reconocer, con respeto, el sufrimiento padecido por los demás. Eso es lo que quiere expresar ETA.

Precisamente de cara al futuro, la reconciliación es una de las tareas a llevar a cabo en Euskal Herria, algo que en su medida se está produciendo con honestidad entre la ciudadanía. Es un ejercicio necesario para conocer la verdad de modo constructivo, cerrar heridas y construir garantías para que ese sufrimiento no vuelva a suceder. Dando una solución democrática al conflicto político se podrá construir la paz y lograr la libertad en Euskal Herria. Para apagar definitivamente las llamas de Gernika.

Euskal Herria, 8 de abril de 2018"

Las 15 páginas filtradas de las notas del ex director del FBI James Comey sobre Trump: chismosas e irrelevantes

WASHINGTON (AP) — In a series of startlingly candid conversations, President Donald Trump told former FBI Director James Comey that he had serious concerns about the judgment of a top adviser, asked about the possibility of jailing journalists and described a boast from Vladimir Putin about Russian prostitutes, according to Comey’s notes of the talks obtained by The Associated Press on Thursday night.

The 15 pages of documents contain new details about a series of interactions with Trump that Comey found so unnerving that he chose to document them in writing. Those seven encounters in the weeks and months before Comey’s May 2017 firing include a Trump Tower discussion about allegations involving Trump and prostitutes in Moscow; a White House dinner at which Comey says Trump asked him for his loyalty; and a private Oval Office discussion where the ex-FBI head says the president asked him to end an investigation into Michael Flynn, the former White House national security adviser.

The documents had been eagerly anticipated since their existence was first revealed last year, especially since Comey’s interactions with Trump are a critical part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into whether the president sought to obstruct justice. Late Thursday night, Trump tweeted that the memos “show clearly that there was NO COLLUSION and NO OBSTRUCTION.”

The president also accused Comey of leaking classified information. The memos obtained by the AP were unclassified, though some portions were blacked out as classified. Details from Comey’s memos reported in news stories last year appear to come from the unclassified portions.

In explaining the purpose of creating the memos, which have been provided to Mueller, Comey has said he “knew there might come a day when I would need a record of what had happened” to defend not only himself but the FBI as well.

The memos cover the first three months of the Trump administration, a period of upheaval marked by staff turnover, a cascade of damaging headlines and revelations of an FBI investigation into potential ties between the Trump campaign and Russia. The documents reflect Trump’s uneasiness about that investigation, though not always in ways that Comey seemed to anticipate.

Leer notícia completa, aquí

La agricultura orgánica consume mucha más tierra al ser menos eficiente

En cualquier escenario, la eliminación de fertilizantes sintéticos requeriría una expansión masiva de las tierras de cultivo. Incluso con los escenarios más optimistas para mejorar la fijación de nitrógeno y el reciclaje de nutrientes, las tierras de cultivo necesitarían ampliarse radicalmente para reemplazar por completo a los fertilizantes sintéticos. Estas mejoras podrían proporcionar no más del 90% del nitrógeno actualmente proporcionado a los cultivos. 47 Suponiendo una caída proporcional de la producción, se necesitaría al menos un 12% más de tierras de cultivo (casi 500 millones de acres) para mantener la producción. 48

Además, debido a la brecha de rendimiento de la agricultura orgánica, se necesitaría un adicional de 25 a 33% más de tierra. 49 Pero para compensar tanto la brecha de rendimiento como la huella de sombra, necesitaríamos al menos una cantidad adicional de tierra del tamaño de Australia, entre 40% y 100% más de tierra agrícola que la cantidad que usamos hoy. 50

Los costos ambientales completos de tal expansión son difíciles de comprender. Los bosques serían registrados. Hábitats perdidos. Carbono liberado de los árboles y el suelo. Ciertamente podemos objetar el tamaño exacto de la huella de sombra y cómo calcularla. Quizás la brecha de rendimiento está más cerca del 15%, tal vez el 25%. Tal vez el 15% de la tierra es adecuada para cultivos de fertilizantes, tal vez el 5%. Pero la conclusión fundamental sigue siendo: un sistema alimentario sin fertilizantes significaría convertir una enorme cantidad de tierra en agricultura: al menos mil millones de acres.

Y esta es una estimación de límite inferior. Al usar suposiciones de rango medio, parece más probable que se necesiten cerca de 3 o 4 mil millones de acres de tierras de cultivo adicionales para satisfacer la demanda actual de alimentos sin fertilizantes sintéticos. 51 Dadas las numerosas barreras económicas, técnicas y biológicas, la cantidad de nitrógeno no sintético que el mundo podría generar de manera realista es probablemente mucho menor.

Leer el artículo completo, aquí (en inglés)

La promiscuidad se está volviendo más común para las mujeres, pero menos común para los hombres

Multivariate analysis reveals that the happiness gap between Promiscuous America and their less sexually adventurous peers can be partly explained by marital status. Recall that promiscuous survey respondents are less likely to be married and more likely to be divorced. Regular readers of this blog are well aware of the fact that marriage and happiness are correlated, and this association might account for why some promiscuous adults are less happy. But there are likely other reasons, some of which might be anterior to both unhappiness and promiscuity. For instance, childhood sexual abuse increases the later-life chances of both promiscuity and unhappiness. In other words, there is no way of knowing if promiscuity is directly causing people to be unhappy.

The happiness story changes when promiscuous Americans get married. These respondents are not more or less happy in their relationships than their non-promiscuous peers. Some may have relegated their infidelities to their first marriages. A small number may be in polyamorous or other forms of open relationships, although it’s impossible to know with these data.

Contrary to public perception, typical sexual behavior hasn’t changed much in recent decades. But there will always be outliers, Americans who have a multitude of sex partners. This behavior is becoming more common for women, but less common for men. Perhaps these women are experiencing the last stages of the Sexual Revolution, stages that came earlier to men. It’s evidence for this proposition that there is no male equivalent to the term “slut shaming.”

Promiscuous America is urban, secular, and politically progressive, as well as smart and well educated. On average, educated people with high IQs are more likely to get married and stay married. But averages don’t reveal human behavior at the margins, and a narrow sliver of intelligent and highly-educated Americans are departing from sexual norms. The reasons why are among the most intriguing questions raised by this research brief. The answers require in-depth interviews and psychometric data.

The appeal of promiscuity is the excitement of diverse sexual experiences. Some people may be more suited to sexual sybaritism than monogamy. For others, the downside is less happiness over the long haul, and for these people, promiscuity may be more a reaction than a conscious choice. | INSTITUTE FOR FAMILY STUDIES

Leer el artículo completo, aquí

Cuatro preguntas sobre el cambio climático

Garth Partridge

An essay on the state of climate change science.

(1) Is the science of climate change ‘settled’?

The scientific uncertainties associated with climate prediction are the basis of most of the arguments about the significance of climate change(25), and as well are the basis of much of the polarized public opinion on the political aspects of the matter. Perhaps the most fundamental of the uncertainties can be illustrated by reference to a simple ‘thought experiment’ as follows.

Imagine a plume of smoke rising from a cigarette into some sort of flue. The stream of smoke is smooth enough for a start, but suddenly breaks into random turbulent eddies whose behaviour is inherently unpredictable.

We can in principle make closely spaced measurements all over the turbulent plume at some particular initial time, and then at regular steps forward in time into the future. We can in principle predict things into the future with a numerical model which uses the initial measurements as a starting point and then makes predictions of the conditions at the end of each time step at all of the so-called ‘grid points’ corresponding to the positions of the measurements.

After the first time step, the model uses as its starting point the conditions predicted for the end of the previous step. The predictions may match the observations for a while, but very soon random fluctuations smaller than the distance between the measurements (they are called ‘sub-grid-scale eddies’ in the vernacular of numerical modellers) grow in size and — as far as the model is concerned — appear out of nowhere and swamp the eddies we thought we knew something about. While we can probably say that the overall column of smoke will continue to rise, we can make that rather limited statement only because the eddies are restricted or ‘contained’ by a boundary (the flue), and cannot grow to a size any bigger than the limit set by the boundary.

Predicting the actual value of the average rate of rise of the overall plume is still difficult. Depending on the shape of the flue, it may require the use of one or more ‘tuneable parameters’ in the forecasting process. A tuneable parameter is a piece of input information whose actual value is chosen on no basis other than to ensure that theoretical simulation matches observation. Normally it would be used to define something about the average state of the turbulent medium between the grid points of the forecasting model.

The climate system is much like the smoke but is vastly more complicated. The atmosphere and the ocean are two interacting turbulent media with turbulent processes going on inside them, and there are all sorts and shapes of physical boundary (of the ocean in particular) that ‘contain’ the eddies in a way that may or may not allow prediction of average conditions over areas less than the size of the earth. In principle at least we may be able to make a reasonable forecast of such things as the future global-average temperature and global-average rainfall by using a numerical model and a number of tuneable parameters obtained from observations of present conditions. (The ‘in principle’ here is based on the fact that the overall size of the earth sets an upper limit on the scale of possible eddies). Forecasting smaller-scale averages becomes more and more problematic as the scale decreases. As a first guess based on the smoke plume analogy, one might be able to forecast averages over areas the size of ocean basins (imagine them as ‘containers’ limiting the maximum possible eddy size) but one cannot really expect to make skilful prediction for areas much smaller than that.

This qualitative conclusion is borne out by the 100-year forecasts of global and regional rainfall produced by the various numerical climate models from around the world(1). While the predicted global averages are reasonably consistent (not necessarily correct, but at least to some degree consistent with each other), the predictions for continental Australia for instance, where the overall average of measured rainfall is currently about 450 mm per year, range from less than 200 mm per year to greater than 1000 mm per year. From which it would seem that long-term predictions of regional rainfall are probably little better than guesswork.

The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations took its first steps towards establishing the World Climate Program in the early nineteen-seventies. Among other things it held an international workshop in Stockholm to define the main scientific problems to be solved before reliable climate forecasting could be possible(2). The workshop defined quite a number, but focused on the two that it regarded as the most important and fundamental.

The first concerned an inability to simulate the amount and character of clouds in the atmosphere. Clouds are important because they govern the balance between solar heating and infrared cooling of the planet, and thereby are a major control of Earth’s temperature. The second concerned an inability to forecast the behaviour of oceans. Oceans are important because they are the main reservoirs of heat in the climate system. They have internal, more-or-less random, fluctuations on all sorts of time-scales ranging from years through to centuries. These fluctuations cause changes in ocean surface temperature that in turn affect Earth’s overall climate.

Many of the problems of simulating the behaviour of clouds and oceans are still there (along with lots of other problems of lesser moment) and for many of the same reasons as were appreciated at the time(26,27). Perhaps the most significant is that climate models do their calculations at each point of an imaginary grid of points spread evenly around the world at various heights in the atmosphere and depths in the ocean. The calculations are done every hour or so of model time as the model steps forward into its theoretical future. Problems arise because practical constraints on the size of computers ensure that the horizontal distance between model grid-points may be as much as a degree or two of latitude or longitude — that is to say, a distance of many tens of kilometres.

That sort of distance is much larger than the size of a typical piece of cloud. As a consequence, simulation of clouds requires a fair amount of inspired guesswork (for which read ‘parameterization’ as mentioned above with regard to the smoke plume analogy) as to what might be a suitable average of whatever is going on between the grid-points of the model. Even if experimental observations suggest that the models get the averages roughly right for a short-term forecast, there is no guarantee they will get them right for atmospheric conditions several decades into the future. Among other reasons, small errors in the numerical modelling of complex processes have a nasty habit of accumulating with time.

Apropos of which, NCAR/UCAR has recently assembled a data base of 30 individual simulations of North American climate for the period 1963 to 2012 using what is known as the Community Earth System Model. Each simulation was subject to an identical scenario of historical ‘radiative forcing’ (effectively an identical scenario of atmospheric carbon dioxide increase over the period) but each was started from a very slightly different atmospheric state — that is, with an almost infinitesimal difference in the initial value of global temperature. According to the NCAR/UCAR press release on the subject, the variations in warming and cooling in the 30 simulations illustrate the far-reaching effects of natural variability superimposed on human-induced climate change. The work was discussed(3) by Dr Kip Hansen, who made the point that the results illustrate well the original finding by Edward Lorenz in the 1960s using a weather model on an early computer : “Two states differing by imperceptible amounts may eventually evolve into two considerably different states.……….if, then, there is any error whatever in observing the present state……..an acceptable prediction of an instantaneous state in the distant future may well be impossible……….(the possibility of) precise very-long-range forecasting would seem to be non-existent”.

Again because of the grid-point business, oceanic fluctuations and turbulent eddies smaller than the distance between the grid-points of a model are unknown to that model. This would not be a problem except for the point made earlier that eddies in turbulent fluids can grow larger and larger. A small random eddy in the real ocean can grow and appear out of nowhere as far as a forecasting model is concerned, and make something of a dog’s breakfast of the forecast from that time on.

All of the above is background to one of the great mysteries of the climate change issue. Virtually all the scientists directly involved in climate prediction are aware of the enormous problems and uncertainties still associated with their product. It is therefore difficult to see how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC) can maintain there is a 95 per cent probability that human emissions of carbon dioxide have caused most of the global warming that has occurred over the last several decades(4).

Bear in mind that the representation of clouds in climate models (and of the water vapour which is intimately involved with cloud formation) is such as to amplify the forecast global warming from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide — on average over most of the models — by a factor of about three(5). In other words, two-thirds of the forecast rise in global average temperature derives from this particular model characteristic. Despite what the models are telling us — and perhaps because it is models that are telling us — very few scientists close to the problem, when asked the specific question, would say that they are 95 per cent sure that the effect of clouds is to amplify rather than to reduce the warming effect of increasing carbon dioxide. If they are not sure that clouds amplify global warming, they cannot be sure that most of that warming is a result of increasing carbon dioxide. (Climate scientists talk in terms of ‘feedback’. Positive feedbacks amplify the warming effect, and negative feedbacks reduce it. The various climate models have cloud feedbacks ranging from slightly negative to significantly positive(5), and there is no guarantee that cloud feedback in the real world lies within even that quite large range.)

Bear in mind too that very few scientists close to the problem, when asked the specific question, would say there is only a very small possibility (for example, less than 5 per cent) that internal ocean behaviour could be a major cause of the warming over the past half-century(27). They would be particularly careful not to make such a statement now that there has been only a small global warming over the most recent twenty-or-so years. In the scurry to find reasons for this ‘pause’ (it was first acknowledged as a problem in 2009 or thereabouts(33)), and to find reasons for an obvious failure of the models to predict it, about three or four years ago we began to hear from scientists that (among other theories(6, 7)) perhaps the heat of global warming was being hidden in the deep ocean. In other words we were being told that some natural internal oceanic fluctuation may have reduced the upward trend in global temperature. It is therefore a little strange that we were not being told by the IPCC, or at any rate we were not being told very loudly, that some natural internal fluctuation of the ocean (rather than warming by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide) may have given rise to much of the earlier upward trend of temperature.

In 2015, a group of scientists within NOAA re-examined the world’s long-term measured surface temperature data and found reasons to adjust (to correct?) the data in such a way as to remove the so-called ‘pause’ from the observational record(8). There has been much argument about the validity of the adjustments(9). It has given a considerable impetus to the suggestion that cherry picking of data may be a problem in climate change science.

In light of all this, we have at least to consider the possibility that the scientific establishment behind the global warming issue has been drawn into the trap of seriously overstating the climate problem — or, what is much the same thing, of seriously understating the uncertainties associated with the climate problem. If true, it is a particularly nasty trap in the context of science, because it would risk destroying, perhaps for centuries to come, the unique and hard-won reputation for honesty that is the basis of society’s respect for scientific endeavour. It would seem sensible for the climate-science community to back away from any tacit support for the proposition that ‘the science is settled’.

(2) What is the effect on climate science of public advocacy for the message of disastrous anthropogenic global warming (AGW)?

The part of the scientific community that has an interest in climate change is highly polarized on the matter.

On one hand there are those within what might be called the climate research establishment. They control or reap the benefit of the vast amount of money that has poured into climate research over the past two or three decades. They are funded almost entirely by government, and they support — at least in public — the thesis of disastrous anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Some of them have become fierce advocates for the proposition that society must drastically limit its use of fossil fuels so as to limit emission of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

On the other hand there are the ‘climate sceptics’ who for one reason or another are doubtful that global warming will be a serious problem for the future. Mainly they are from other disciplines related in some way or other to climate science, or from the various ranks of interested amateur scientists(29). However they include also a fair number of independent climate scientists — ‘independent’ here usually (but certainly not always) implying that they are retired. Most climate sceptics do not dispute the actual existence of human-induced global warming. They do suggest that it may be so small as to be insignificant; that if it is significant then it may well be a net benefit to society; or that if it is not a net benefit then the natural processes of human adaption will probably take care of the matter. They are greatly outnumbered by those in the climate establishment, particularly if one considers only those who have actually published their findings and opinions in mainstream media(28).

The problem for the scientific community as a whole is that this polarization, despite its imbalance towards the establishment, is seriously threatening the public’s perception of the professionalism of scientists in general.

Setting aside the issue of who is right in the debate, some of the more vocal of the establishment climate researchers have fallen into a mode of open denigration of climate sceptics (‘deniers’ is the offensive popular terminology of the day). They insist that only researchers directly within the climate-change community are capable of giving authoritative advice. They insist that one can find true and reputable science only in peer-reviewed climate literature(10,11,33). But most significantly, they seem to have evolved a policy of deliberately excluding sceptics from climate-change forums of one sort or another, and indeed of refusing to take part in any forum where sceptics may share the podium.

The situation is reminiscent in many ways of medieval religion. The priests of that time opposed translation of the written scriptures from Latin into the local languages. They believed that only people fully trained in the theology of the time were capable of interpreting the scriptures correctly. They believed it would be highly dangerous to allow non-trained people to have direct access to the word of God because the chances were high that they would get it wrong. They were not backward in applying their peculiarly nasty forms of denigration on those who thought otherwise about the matter.

The equivalent modern denigration includes quite deliberate and serious calls for the jailing of climate sceptics who dare to question the truths of AGW(12,13). Despite the strength of the position of medieval priests, they ultimately lost both the battle and much of their public support. The modern equivalent with regard to AGW is that, despite the claim that 95% or more of climate scientists support the AGW establishment position, support for the position among the general public (of the western nations anyway) is only of the order of 50%(14). The reputation of climate science, and as a consequence the reputation of science in general, seems to have lost a good deal of its public gloss.

Since the climate establishment is the most organized and sophisticated of the polarized sides in the debate — it has by an enormous margin the lion’s share of research resources — then it is reasonable to expect the climate establishment would try to organize some sort of bridging of the gap between the sides. In many ways it has much to gain. For instance, it is perhaps more of a rule than an exception that really new ideas in any particular area of research come from outside that area, and many sceptics come from other disciplines. For instance again, some weblog sceptics have access to a quite remarkable store of unpaid and enthusiastic scientific labor. Even within the climate establishment, there are undoubtedly many researchers who worry that their scientific endeavours are guided more by political requirements than by scientific necessity.

(3) What are the barriers to public dissemination of results casting doubt on the theory of disastrous anthropogenic global warming (AGW)?

Scientists — most scientists anyway — may be a bit naïve, but they are not generally wicked, idiotic, or easily suborned either by money or by the politically correct. So whatever might be the enjoyment factor associated with supporting officially accepted wisdom, and whatever might be the constraints applied by the scientific powers-that-be, it is still surprising that the latest IPCC report has been tabled with almost no murmur of discontent from the lower levels of the research establishment. What has happened to the scepticism that is supposedly the lifeblood of scientific enquiry?

The answer probably gets back to the uncertainty of it all. The chances of proving — ‘proving’ in the hard scientific sense of requiring both observational support and replication — that the projected change of climate over the next century will be large enough to be disastrous are virtually nil. The same uncertainty ensures that the chances of a climate sceptic, or anyone else for that matter, proving the disaster theory to be oversold are also virtually nil. To that extent there is a level playing field for the two sides of the argument. The problem is that climate research necessarily involves enormous resources, and is an activity for institutions and organizations. Scepticism is an occupation for individuals. Things being as they are in the climate change arena, scepticism by an individual within the system can be fairly career limiting (see later in this section). In any event, most individual scientists have a conscience, and are reluctant to put their head above the public parapet in order to propound a view of things that is highly uncertain and may indeed be inherently unprovable.

There is a broader context to this issue of uncertainty.

To the extent that there is such a thing as normal science, it relies upon accurate observations to verify its theories. Climate research has to rely on spectacularly inaccurate data for information on Earth’s climate of more than a century or two ago. That is, it has to rely on proxy information from tree rings and ice cores and corals and so on, and abstracting a coherent story from it all is something of a statistical nightmare. Even for the most recent century, the huge data sets of directly measured surface temperatures have their problems, and the stories that these data tell are revised in one way or another as new ideas about the correct method of analyzing the data appear on the scene. Such revisions make for tremendous arguments and competing claims about whether cherry picking of data has been used to support the predictions of the AGW theoretical models(15,16).

Climate science is an example of what Canadian educator Sue McGregor calls ‘post-normal science’ in which “the facts are uncertain, values are in dispute, stakes are high and decisions are urgent”. In such circumstances it is virtually impossible to avoid sub-conscious cherry picking of data to suit the popular theory of the time. Even Isaac Newton and Albert Einstein were not immune from the problem(17). In their case they were of sufficient genius (and were sufficiently lucky!) for their theories ultimately to trump the inaccuracy of the observations they had selected. Other scientists are rarely so prescient or so lucky. In the modern era of concern about climate, the problem is compounded by the existence of the vastly complex computer forecasting models that can be tuned, again more-or-less subconsciously, to yield a desired result. From theory to observation and back again — if we are not very careful, the cherry picking can go round and round in an endless misleading loop.

But the real worry with climate research is that it is on the very edge of what is called post-modern (as opposed to post-normal) science. Post-modern science is a counterpart of the relativist world of post-modern art and design. It is a much more dangerous beast where results are valid only in the context of society’s beliefs, and where the very existence of scientific truth can be denied(18). Post-modern science envisages a sort of political nirvana in which scientific theory and results can be consciously and legitimately manipulated to suit either the dictates of political correctness or the policies of the government of the day.

At a more mundane level, there is little doubt that some players in the climate research establishment — not a lot, but enough to have severely damaged the reputation of climate scientists in general — have stepped across the boundary of what is generally regarded as acceptable scientific behaviour. The Climategate scandal(19) of 2009 for instance, wherein thousands of e-mails were leaked (or perhaps hacked) from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, revealed quite a number of such cases. Formal enquiries of one sort or another subsequently cleared the scientists involved of any legal misdemeanours(34). However the emails(33) showed that some senior members of the climate research community were, for example, quite happy to discuss ways and means of controlling the research journals so as to deny publication of any material that went against the establishment view of things. The ways and means included the removal of recalcitrant editors who allowed such publication.

For whatever reason, it is indeed vastly more difficult to publish results in climate research journals if they run against the tide of politically correct opinion. Which is why most of the sceptic literature on the subject has been forced onto the web, and particularly onto web-logs devoted to the sceptic view of things. Which in turn is probably why many of the most vocal believers in disastrous anthropogenic global warming subscribe to the view that only peer-reviewed literature should be accepted as an indication of the real state of affairs(10). They argue that the sceptic web-logs should never be taken seriously by ‘real’ scientists, and certainly should never be quoted.

This is a pity. Some of the sceptics are extremely productive as far as critical analysis of climate science is concerned. Names like Judith Curry (Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology), Steve McIntyre (a Canadian geologist-statistician) and blogger Willis Eschenbach come to mind. These three in particular provide a balance and maturity in public discussion that puts many players in the global warming movement to shame, and as a consequence their out-reach to the scientifically-inclined general public is highly effective. Their output, together with that of other sceptics on the web, is well on the way to becoming a practical and stringent substitute for peer review.

Before his retirement Professor Lennart Bengtsson was the director of the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting, a large numerical modelling facility based in the UK which is perhaps the world’s premier institution concerned with global meteorological forecasts up to one year ahead. Modelling on this time scale involves much the same techniques as in the longer-term climate forecasting. In 2014, only three weeks after his appointment as a member of the Advisory Board to the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), he was forced to resign(20). The GWPF is a significant organization known for its support of sceptical views concerning climate change. The reasons for his resignation are clear from the following abstracts from his resignation letter to the GWPF. “I have been put under such an enormous group pressure in recent days from all over the world that it has become almost unbearable to me. If this is to continue I will be unable to conduct my normal work and will even start to worry about my health and safety……….I had not expected such an enormous world wide pressure put at me from a community that I have been close to all my life. Colleagues are withdrawing their support, other colleagues are withdrawing from joint authorship etc………It is a situation that reminds me about the time of McCarthy.”

In 2015 the University of Western Australia (UWA) entered into a contract with Dr Bjorn Lomborg for the formation of the Australia Consensus Centre, a policy ‘think tank’ similar in principle to one set up by Dr Lomborg in Copenhagen. The Australian federal government committed $4 million to the proposed new Centre. It seems that Dr Lomborg in the past had attracted controversy for suggesting that the dangers of climate change are overstated, and that modern society faces other more pressing challenges such as global poverty. As a consequence, an enormous negative reaction emerged very publically from the academic staff within the UWA (and indeed from the staff of other Australian Universities) — so much so that the University Vice Chancellor was forced to cancel the contract and return the $4 million to the government(21). Subsequently other Australian universities were approached to host the Centre, but none of them could be persuaded to take the political risk of upsetting a vocal coterie of their own staff.

Research scientists these days are fully aware that the ‘publish or perish’ mantra is the dominant, and indeed almost the only, factor determining promotion in the profession — particularly in the early years of a scientific career. And climate research scientists are fully aware that it is difficult to publish results that do not support the thesis of disastrous AGW. Certainly it is extremely difficult to publish them in the more widely quoted journals favoured by (and some would say, controlled by) the climate-change establishment. The pressure to publish innocuous rather than controversial results is enormous. Risk aversion in the face of such pressure is even more of an issue at the present time now that multiple authorship of research papers has become the norm rather than the exception.

There are many examples where the transition from paid employment in climate research to retirement has been accompanied by a significant change of heart away from acknowledging the seriousness of global warming. It seems that scientists too are conscious of the need to eat, and like everyone else must consider the consequences of public dissent from the views of the powers-that-be. One example was Dr Brian Tucker. He was the Director of the Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Centre, and subsequently became Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research. He was heavily involved in the development of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. During his time with CSIRO he was quite naturally the ‘go to’ man for journalists and radio programmers seeking stories on matters to do with climate change. On retirement he became a writer and speaker for the Institute of Public Affairs, and greatly surprised his former colleagues with his very public change to an openly sceptical view on the subject.

Once upon a time we were led to believe that the road to fame and fortune within science was to produce new ideas that challenged accepted belief. Preferably, those new ideas would lead to tangible benefits for society. But irrespective of the benefit side of things, the practical basis of all research was to be openly sceptical about everything — particularly about one’s own theories, and particularly about any new theory that had some vague connection to politically correct ideas of the day. Conscious, deliberate and obvious scepticism was regarded as essential to maintaining some sort of immunity from the human failing of seeing what one wants to see rather than what is real. Good scientific practice demanded at the very least that one should present the evidence against a new theory at the same time as the evidence for it.

It seems that in those parts of science that bear upon the politically correct, sceptics are frowned upon, given nasty names, and ultimately can have their reputations burned at the stake. Certainly in the field of climate change, one could perhaps be forgiven for thinking that “advocacy for the cause” trumps the need for scepticism on any day of the week(22). This is no small problem in the grand scheme of things, because the whole issue of climate change has lots to be sceptical about.

(4) What are the implications for climate science of public acceptance of the idea that there is a ‘consensus among scientists’ on anthropogenic global warming (AGW)?

A statement to the effect that there is a ‘consensus among scientists’ on AGW is more-or-less equivalent to saying that ‘the science is settled’. While there is certainly a consensus among scientists that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will increase the average surface temperature of the world above what it would have been otherwise, there is far from a consensus that the rise in temperature will be large enough to be significant. (Bear in mind also that “what the temperature would have been otherwise” is also subject to natural variability and is therefore very uncertain). There is even less of a consensus among scientists, environmentalists and economists that any rise of temperature would necessarily be detrimental.

Thus both phrases are highly misleading if they are taken at face value without caveats. It is perhaps no accident that they are most often quoted in the context of outright advocacy for the idea of disastrous anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

In any event, if politicians and the general public are finally persuaded to the view that scientists are certain about the on-set of disastrous AGW, it is almost certain that climate research will suffer badly.

A prime example was the decision by CSIRO in Australia earlier this year (2016) to reduce its current very extensive climate research activity so as to focus more on research relevant to industry. The decision was formally justified on the basis of the ‘science is settled’ argument(30), and as a consequence the international climate establishment reacted savagely(31). Within days of the CSIRO decision, thousands of protesting letters were sent to the Chairman of CSIRO from all over the globe. It was an interesting exercise from an outsider’s point of view. It was perhaps the very first time that the climate science community itself actively protested loudly in public that the science of AGW is very far from settled(32). Up to that time, it had let the activists within the environmental movement and within the general public run free with the settled science proposition.

It should be emphasized that solving (the solvable) problems of climate prediction (or, just as important, making a realistic assessment of the ultimate limits to climate prediction set by the inherent uncertainties within the system) requires the deployment and long-term maintenance of massively expensive observational satellite and oceanographic programs. ‘Long term’, since we are concerned here with climate time scales, means many decades.

It is doubtful if the maintenance of such programs will continue in a political environment where it is believed that the science is settled. Already there are signs that major oceanographic research efforts — such as NOAA’s Tropical Ocean Atmosphere Array (TOAA) for instance — are being downgraded in priority because of maintenance costs(23). TOAA involves the use of large numbers of specially instrumented ocean buoys, satellite observations and so on, and is concerned with attempts to predict the onset of El Nino and La Nina events in the Pacific ocean. These events are perhaps the most obvious examples (to date anyway) of semi-regular natural oceanic fluctuations that can produce significant medium-term changes in global temperature. TOAA is also relevant to reducing the large errors associated with numerical calculation in climate models of the transfer of heat and moisture between ocean and atmosphere.

It is conceivable in circumstances of reduced funding that overall climate research will revert to a situation where the focus is entirely on the easy option of developing more and bigger numerical models. This would be a sterile activity indeed without the input of experimental observation to guide the development of theoretical prediction methods and to keep the relevant numerical models ‘honest’. It would fall foul of a fundamental tenet of scientific endeavour — namely, that a theory without experimental support is little better than guesswork(24). It could stop climate research dead.

Maintenance of their funding and livelihood requires climate scientists to tread a fine line between emphasizing the uncertainties in climate science and selling the idea of disastrous anthropogenic global warming.



References (1) Lim W.H. and Michael L. Roderick, 2009: An Atlas of the Global Water Cycle, ANU E Press, Australian National University, 293pp. Downloadable at: http://press.anu.edu.au/publications/atlas-global-water-cycle

(2) JOC,1975: The Physical Basis of Climate and Climate Modelling, GARP Publication Series 16, Secretariat of the WMO, Geneva, 265pp

(3) https://judithcurry.com/2016/10/05/lorenz-validated/#more-22215

(4) https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/27/global-warming-ipcc-report-humans

(5) http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI3819.1

(6) https://fabiusmaximus.com/2014/01/17/climate-change-global-warming-62141/

(7) https://judithcurry.com/2014/01/20/the-case-of-the-missing-heat/

(8) http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2015/06/03/science.aaa5632

(9) https://judithcurry.com/2015/11/05/jc-op-ed-the-politics-surrounding-global-temperature-data/

(10) https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/climate-science/understanding-climate-change/finding-reliable-information

(11) http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2016/10/PeerReview.pdf

(12) http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/10/us-attorney-general-we-may-prosecute-climate-change-deniers/

(13) http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/12/dem-ags-mounting-big-tobacco-style-probe-oil-companies-industry-fights-back.html

(14) http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/18/what-the-world-thinks-about-climate-change-in-7-charts/

(15) http://www.factcheck.org/2015/11/smith-misfires-on-climate-science/

(16) https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/11/environmentalist-air-pollution/

(17) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-brooks/scientists-behaving-badly_b_1448729.html

(18) http://www.thegwpf.com/hubris-the-troubling-science-economics-and-politics-of-climate-change/

(19) https://wattsupwiththat.com/climategate/

(20) http://www.thegwpf.org/lennart-bengtsson-resigns-gwpf-voices-shock-and-concern-at-the-extent-of-intolerance-within-the-climate-science-community/

(21) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-08/bjorn-lomborg-uwa-consensus-centre-contract-cancelled/6456708

(22) http://www.thegwpf.org/donna-laframboise-science-is-in-trouble/

(23) http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-monitoring-system-in-failure-mode-1.14582

(24) http://scienceandreason.blogspot.com.au/2009/01/theory-vs-observation.html

(25) http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Ch02-ClimatePolicy.pdf

(26) http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~jnorris/presentations/climate_model_clouds.pdf

(27) http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Rpt106.pdf

(28) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_main-stream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming (Note the histogram on page 1)

(29) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_main-stream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming

(30) https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/australia-cuts-110-climate-scientist-jobs/

(31) https://cpsu-csiro.org.au/2016/03/07/unprecedented-support-for-csiro-workforce/

(32) http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-05/quinn-csiro-cuts-why-we-need-climate-modelling/7143584

(33) http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/climate-change/climategate-emails.pdf

(34) https://www.skepticalscience.com/Climategate-CRU-emails-hacked.htm

Post publicado por Judith Curry en su blog Climate ETC

La dictadura cubana tendrá un nuevo líder a partir de este jueves y su apellido no será Castro

EL NUEVO HERALD.- Cuba tendrá un nuevo líder a partir de este jueves y su apellido no será Castro. El primer vicepresidente Miguel Díaz-Canel fue propuesto como el único candidato a la presidencia de Cuba en la sesión de la Asamblea Nacional de este miércoles.

Con ello se acaba la incertidumbre sobre quién sustituirá al actual gobernante Raúl Castro, cuyo último día al frente del gobierno será este miércoles.

Ni Castro ni ningún miembro de su familia formará parte del nuevo Consejo de Estado.

Como primer vicepresidente fue propuesto Salvador Valdés Mesa, actual vicepresidente y ex líder del único sindicato legal en Cuba, la Central de Trabajadores de Cuba. También se propusieron otros cinco vicepresidentes: el comandante Ramiro Valdés, el actual Ministro de Salud Pública Roberto Tomás Morales Ojeda y tres mujeres: la actual vicepresidenta y contralora general Gladys María Bejerano, Inés María Chapman, Presidenta del Instituto Nacional de Recursos Hidráulicos, y Beatriz Johnson Urrutia, presidenta del gobierno en la provincia de Santiago de Cuba.

Valdés, de 85 años, es el único miembro de la generación de líderes históricos que se mantiene como vicepresidente, mientras se confirma el retiro de Jose Ramón Machado Ventura.

El canciller cubano Bruno Rodríguez se mantiene en el Consejo de Estado. Una ausencia significativa es Marino Murillo, exministro de Economía y vicepresidente que estaba a cargo de la implementación de la política partidista para "actualizar el modelo económico cubano".

Seguir leyendo...

Quién es Miguel Díaz-Canel, el sucesor de la dictadura de los Castro en Cuba

INFOBAE.- Díaz-Canel, de 57 años, sería la primera persona en tomar la máxima dirección que no se apellide Castro desde que triunfó la revolución en 1959 y deberá enfrentarse a una economía estancada, una infraestructura en decadencia, la hostilidad de los Estados Unidos que no levantó el embargo, ni las sanciones contra la isla y las críticas a un modelo de control estatal con salarios bajos en el marco de un congelamiento de la iniciativa privada.

Muchos cubanos a lo largo y ancho de la isla apenas lo conocen. Los últimos años de su ascenso político han transcurrido lento pero sin pausa, escalón por escalón, y asumió un perfil tan bajo que pasaban meses sin que se supiera de sus actividades.

Apenas saltó a la mirada internacional el año pasado cuando fue protagonista de un video filtrado en el cual abogaba por cerrar medios de prensa independientes y etiquetaba a embajadas europeas como una avanzada de la subversión contra la revolución.

Sin embargo, esa imagen ortodoxa contrasta con la percepción de hombre sencillo, tolerante, afable pero exigente que tienen muchos de sus conciudadanos de la provincia de Villa Clara, en la cual pasó su infancia, su juventud y de la que fue primer secretario del Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) durante nueve años, un cargo que en la práctica es más importante que el de jefe de gobierno local.

Leer el artículo completo, aquí